The p(doom) database · person
Yoshua Bengio’s p(doom)
20%
In their words
Yoshua Bengio (Professor, Mila; Turing Award) put their p(doom) at 20% (AI turns out catastrophic), in an article on Jul 15, 2023.
I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Derived from ~50% chance of human-level AI within a decade and >50% it's turned against humanity at scale.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.