The p(doom) database · person
Jan Kulveit’s p(doom)
20–30%
In their words
Jan Kulveit (Researcher, ACS / Charles University) put their p(doom) at 20–30% (AI doom, all-things-considered), (forum) on May 29, 2023.
I would expect prevailing doom conditional on only small efforts to avoid it, but I do think the actual efforts will be substantial, and this moves the chances to ~20-30%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Comment thread under Kokotajlo's 70%.
In context
Among academics in the database (22 people), the median is 15%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.