The p(doom) database · person
Mikita Balesni’s p(doom)
>10%
In their words
Mikita Balesni (Researcher, OpenAI) put their p(doom) at >10% (AI kills all humans), on X on Sep 10, 2026.
i am at OpenAI and i think AI is >10% likely to kill all humans.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.