The p(doom) database · person
Steven Byrnes’s p(doom)
~90%
In their words
Steven Byrnes (AGI safety researcher, Astera Institute) put their p(doom) at ~90% (p(doom), as asked on Doom Debates), on a podcast on Aug 1, 2025.
I don't know, 90% or something, but I kind of pulled that number out of my ass, so take it for whatever it's worth.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Explicitly a rough guess; expects the danger from a future brain-like AGI paradigm, not LLMs.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.