The p(doom) database · person
vie (@viemccoy)’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
vie (@viemccoy) (Researcher at OpenAI) put their p(doom) at ≈0%, on X on Nov 21, 2025.
even if my p(doom) was on the extreme side (its functionally zero)
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among frontier labs in the database (20 people), the median is 12.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.