The p(doom) database · person
Wesley Blomquist’s p(doom)
far less than 1%
In their words
Wesley Blomquist (Writer on X on AI and tech ("progressive e/acc", ~1.3k followers)) put their p(doom) at far less than 1% (AI wiping humanity off the planet), on X on Oct 3, 2026.
The idea that AI is going to wipe us off the planet is just fear-mongering. I truly believe that P-Doom is far less than 1%.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among independent in the database (64 people), the median is 5%. Across all 233 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.