The p(doom) database · person
Laurence Siegel’s p(doom)
≈0%
In their words
Laurence Siegel (Economist and author (Fewer, Richer, Greener)) put their p(doom) at ≈0% (extinction), on X on Sep 15, 2026.
By my logic, the p(extinction) is vanishingly close to zero.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
"Vanishingly close to zero" recorded as ≈0%, like other plain-word zeros. He rates "some sort of unforeseen harm" high.
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.