The p(doom) database · person
Jason Palmer’s p(doom)
~10%
In their words
Jason Palmer (Entrepreneur and impact investor; 2024 US presidential candidate) put their p(doom) at ~10%, on X on Sep 10, 2026.
My p(doom) is about 10% now, far too high to ignore these warnings.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
In context
Among investors in the database (12 people), the median is 1.5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.