The p(doom) database · person
Buck Shlegeris’s p(doom)
>5%
In their words
Buck Shlegeris (CEO, Redwood Research) put their p(doom) at >5% (catastrophic misalignment risk after control measures), on a podcast on Feb 21, 2025.
It would be pretty surprising to me to get under 5%. And suppose we're above 5%: what are we going to do, not deploy the AIs?
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
A lower bound, not a point estimate.
In context
Among safety orgs in the database (28 people), the median is 50%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.