The p(doom) database · person
Roko Mijic’s p(doom)
35–40%
In their words
Roko Mijic (Rationalist writer (Roko's basilisk)) put their p(doom) at 35–40%, on X on Sep 26, 2026.
something like 35-40% has been my P(Doom) for ages.
Source · re-checked against the primary source.
Adds that "laissez-faire AI development" carries "a much, much higher risk". A Sept 25 post calls 40% "reasonable with a determined effort to reduce it".
Every number on the record
| Date | p(doom) | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | 35–40% | p(doom) | x |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 40–50% | p(doom) | x |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ~50% | p(doom), mostly driven by misuse of ASI by insiders | x |
In context
Among independent in the database (63 people), the median is 5%. Across all 223 people it is 10%. How the medians and the index are built.
A p(doom) is a personal, subjective estimate of the probability that advanced AI ends in human extinction or a comparable, irreversible catastrophe. Scope and timeframe differ from person to person, so compare with care: why p(doom) numbers disagree.