{
 "method": "0.5*people + 0.3*experts + 0.2*market. people = median of each person's latest self-stated estimate; experts = median of expert surveys, latest per series; market = Manifold 'AI wipes out humanity before 2100'. Polls, models and markets other than Manifold are excluded.",
 "history": [
  {
   "date": "2026-09-21",
   "index": 17.5,
   "people": 25.0,
   "experts": 7.5,
   "market": 13.6,
   "n_people": 99,
   "n_rows": 148
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-22",
   "index": 17.5,
   "people": 25.0,
   "experts": 7.5,
   "market": 13.6,
   "n_people": 100,
   "n_rows": 149
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-23",
   "index": 17.5,
   "people": 25.0,
   "experts": 7.5,
   "market": 13.6,
   "n_people": 101,
   "n_rows": 150
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-28",
   "index": 19.9,
   "people": 23.8,
   "experts": 17.5,
   "market": 13.8,
   "n_people": 102,
   "n_rows": 153
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-29",
   "index": 13.0,
   "people": 10,
   "experts": 17.5,
   "market": 13.8,
   "n_people": 223,
   "n_rows": 300
  }
 ],
 "latest": {
  "date": "2026-09-29",
  "index": 13.0,
  "people": 10,
  "experts": 17.5,
  "market": 13.8,
  "n_people": 223,
  "n_rows": 300
 },
 "updated": "2026-09-29"
}